Anticipatory Action: Getting Cash to Families Before the Flood

Traditional disaster response waits for the damage, then sends help. Anticipatory action flips this: when a reliable forecast crosses a pre-agreed threshold, money and support are released before the hazard hits.

Why it works Families who receive cash a few days before a flood can move livestock, protect food stocks, repair roofs or relocate. Humanitarian organisations have piloted this approach across Africa and Asia, with promising results.

The three ingredients 1. Triggers: objective thresholds based on forecasts and observations, such as river levels or rainfall. 2. Pre-agreed actions: what will be done, by whom and for whom. 3. Pre-arranged finance: funds that can be released automatically.

Where geospatial data comes in - Defining who is in the impact zone using population and settlement data. - Calibrating triggers against historical satellite flood records. - Verifying outcomes after the event.

A Nigerian roadmap - Start with river floods on the Niger and Benue, where forecasts are most reliable. - Pre-register beneficiaries with mobile money or bank accounts. - Use digital postcodes for precise targeting. - Test and refine triggers each season.

StrikeClimate helps agencies design trigger models and targeting maps for anticipatory action programmes.