After Mokwa: Building Impact-Based Flood Early Warning in Nigeria

In late May 2025 a flash flood devastated Mokwa in Niger State, killing at least 200 people and displacing more than 3,000, with hundreds more reported missing (AP). The disaster was a painful reminder that Nigeria's flood risk isn't confined to the Niger-Benue floodplains in September. Intense local rainfall, failing drainage and settlement in flood paths can turn deadly in hours.

From weather warnings to impact warnings Traditional warnings say *what the weather will be*. Impact-based warnings say *what the weather will do*: which streets will flood, which bridge may wash out and who needs to move.

The five building blocks 1. Hazard forecasting: rainfall nowcasts, river gauges and NIHSA and NiMet outlooks. 2. Exposure data: buildings, population, roads, schools and health facilities. 3. Vulnerability: housing type, elevation and access to safe ground. 4. Impact modelling: hydrological and terrain models plus satellite-observed flood history. 5. Communication: multilingual, multichannel alerts with clear actions.

Satellites close the data gap Sentinel-1 radar sees through clouds, so every flood it captures improves our map of where water actually goes. Geospatial foundation models now extract flood extents in hours, building a historical archive for every community.

What states and LGAs can do this year - Map flood-path settlements and prioritise them for drainage and relocation support. - Pre-agree trigger thresholds for evacuation and anticipatory cash transfers. - Run community drills and keep phone trees and WhatsApp groups current. - Use digital postcodes to geolocate every at-risk household.

How StrikeClimate helps We build impact-based early warning dashboards and alerting pipelines that turn open satellite and hydromet data into street-level action. Lead time saves lives, and it also protects livelihoods.